Kuril Island dispute

Russia-Japan: Debated Kuril

This dispute is not as intense as the Russia-Ukraine war, yet it is significant nonetheless. What makes it more interesting is the fact that both the nations, Russia and Japan are still at war, well legally. After WWII ended in the allied nation's favour, peace treaties were signed among all participants of the war except for Russia and Japan.

Allow me to clear out what's going on and straighten the facts for you to digest. Let us begin with Kuril itself, its topography, location and history, from thereon we will move to its significance in Geopolitics and why Japan's claim over Kuril is a lost cause.

The Kuril Islands are a volcanic archipelago of 56 islands that stretch from Japan's northernmost point (Hokkaido) all the way up to the southernmost point of the Kamchatka peninsula of Russia, and to the east of it lies Sakhalin island of Russia. The entire archipelago separates the Sea of Okhotsk and the North Pacific Ocean and its indigenous group is known as 'Aino'.

For our discussion, we need not concern with all the 56 islands but the four southernmost islands: Kunashir, Iturup, Habomai and Shikotan.

Kurils have seen a continuous change in its administration due to unstable relations between Russia and Japan. 

Treaty of Shimoda, 1855:

Both nations concluded Japan (Edo period) will administer Southern Kuril and Russia (Tsarist Russia) will administer Northern Kuril, Sakhalin remained disputed at the time.

Treaty of St. Petersburg, 1875

Japan (Meiji period) gained all of Kuril and Russia (Tsarist Russia) all of Sakhalin.

Treaty of Portsmouth, 1905 (Russo-Japanese war)

After Japan's victory over Russia (Tsarist Russia), Japan claimed all of Kuril as well as South Sakhalin.

Paris Peace Treaty, 1947 and Treaty of San Francisco, 1961

After WW2 concluded in 1945, Japan had to sign an unconditional surrender and lose most of its captured territories, resulting, in Russia (Soviet Union) taking over the administration of all of Kuril and Sakhalin as well.

Joint Peace Declaration, 1956 

Russia (Soviet Union) did offer Habomai and Shikotan to establish bilateral ties and peace between nations, but, Japan refused and demanded all the four Southern Kuril Islands which Japan claimed to be its "Northern Territories". As a result, the declaration was never signed and both remained at war till now.

2011: Japanese administration demanded Habomai and Shikotan seeking to renegotiate and settle the Joint peace declaration of 1956, but Russia simply declined.

PRESENT SITUATION

Seeing Russia's take on Ukraine, Japan is worried that it might never regain its Northern Territory and decided to pressure Russia into giving the Kuril back (4 above-mentioned islands only) by trying to make use of Russia's weakened economy by countless sanctions and war expenses. As a response, Russian delegates issued a statement stating there's no territorial dispute and declined to communicate on the matter any further.

IMPORTANCE OF KURIL

The archipelago is located at a very strategic location however you slice it, especially for Russia.

1) Trade: All the major ports of Russia on the North-Eastern coast of Russia freeze during winter practically cutting off Russia from accessing the  Pacific ocean. The only viable access point to the pacific ocean is through Southern most Kuril islands as these do not freeze due to the warm ocean current - Kuroshio which also makes it an excellent fishing ground.

2) Military: Open access to the Pacific is not only important for trade but as well as the Russian Pacific fleet stationed at Vladivostok. Moreover, whoever controls Kuril has more influence in the region, and Putin will never allow a Pro-West nation like Japan to have such influence in the region and close to its maritime boundary.

For Japan the issue is more emotional than economic, Japan's cultural ties to these islands are deep and cannot be let go easily, and Japan being an Island nation depends a lot on the fishery sector than other nations to keep its economy afloat, thus letting go of such good fishing grounds is a setback as well.

POSSIBLE OUTCOME?

As I stated earlier it is a lost cause for Japan, and Russia has no interest whatsoever when it comes to the Kuril Islands dispute. If japan continues with its claim over Kuril the only outcome is damaged Bilateral Relations between both nations and Russia's inclination towards China. Due to Japan's Pacifist Constitution, it won't take action against Russia, putting the entire matter to rest as Russia have no obligation whatsoever to even entertain Japan on the matter.

This is my understanding of the situation, please do share your views.