China Japan Senkaku islands

China-Japan: Quest for SENKAKU

Before I give an explanation of the present scenario, let's understand the Senkaku Islands' history and geography first.

These groups of 8 uninhabited islands are located in the East-China Sea, to the North-East of Taiwan and South of Japan, placing them on the Ring of fire. They are also known as Diaoyu Islands by China and Diaoyutai Islands by Taiwan.

After Japan lost to allied powers at the end of WW2, it signed the treaty of San Francisco, in 1951. According to which Japan had surrendered a lot of its territories, such as the Kuril Islands to Russia, Senkaku Islands to USA Administration and Taiwan as well. (Yeah! Taiwan was a colony of Japan from 1895-1945, according to the Treaty of Shimonoseki, after the first Sino-Japanese war 1894-1895), but Senkaku islands were returned to the Japanese administration in 1971.

IMPORTANCE    

1) Location- Its location in itself is so strategic that the one in control of the island can monitor the trade routes of China and shipping lines in the East and the South China Sea.

2) Economic- These islands offer rich fishing grounds and for an island nation like Japan fishing is an important economic activity which provides a major portion of its GDP, the same goes for other nations which wish for the development of their marine trade.

3) Minerals- The island is said to lie near potential oil and gas reserves which makes it very appealing to neighbouring nations.

4) Military- Whichever nation builds its base on Senkaku can increase its influence in the Pacific region. As well as having leverage over other pacific nations (like China, and Japan).

PRESENT SCENARIO

Seeing present turmoil in Europe; Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created a ripple effect, bringing many territorial disputes into the limelight. Analysts believe nations like China, which have aggressive border policies might use the current turmoil to take advantage and grab pieces of territories from their neighbouring nations, seeing that Russia is once again doing it (Past-2014 Cremia Annexation).

If China were to launch a military takeover of the Senkaku Islands, as Russia has been trying to do in Ukraine, Japan would have to exercise its right to self-defence by international law and initiate defence operations.

WHY DOES CHINA WANT IT?

Japan is an active supporter of the West as well as a member of the QUAD group. China will not let western power increase their influence in the Pacific ocean and that too this close to its own maritime boundary.

Thus, to safeguard its interest in the East China Sea as well as in the South China Sea, the Chinese administration is pushing hard to get control of the Senkaku Islands amid Russia's Ukraine invasion.

POSSIBLE OUTCOME?

Due to a lack of substantial evidence to back its claim on Senkaku, China can only use diplomatic means to convey its point of view. But seeing China's take on territorial matters and aggressive expansion policy in the past, we cannot simply neglect even the minor possibility of China's use of force if its diplomatic means produce no result.

Whichever course China takes, Japan must carefully evaluate its position, capabilities and importance of the Senkaku Islands and be proactive so that it can respond to each scenario appropriately and effectively and make preparations to handle the crisis on its own because the one thing the Russia-Ukraine conflict unveiled is that no nation wishes to participate in others' war unless it is benefiting them.

That's my understanding of the situation, please do share your views on the matter.