Finland Sweden join NATO!

 IS FINLAND & SWEDEN A SEQUEL TO UKRAINE?

Russia Ukraine conflict had prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO, both nations felt threatened by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. It is also considered an unforeseen outcome of the war which will definitely benefit the West and bring a significant change in power in the region.

We will be discussing the history of Finland and Sweden with Russia. Why join NATO now and not earlier? Why is Turkey against Finland joining NATO? What options are available with Russia at the moment and how will Putin proceed? Most likely outcome? Let’s begin!

THE HISTORY BETWEEN RUSSIA, FINLAND & SWEDEN

Initially, Finland was a constituent part of the Swedish Empire and was handed over to Russia in 1809 but later during the Russian revolution declared independence seeing Russian Empire’s collapse. Afterwards, Finland had been to war with the Soviet Union two times during WW2, The Winter war and The Continuation war and inflicted thousands of casualties on the Soviet Union. But it all ended with Finland ceding about 11% of its territory which included the major city Vyborg to the USSR. During the cold war, Finland favoured the USSR and attempted to mediate between The West and East blocs. 

Sweden had hostile relations with Russia for centuries, the time frame of 1600-1725 had seen multiple wars between Sweden and Russia over the control of the Baltic sea and the area around it. The Great Northern War and Napoleonic wars were key points in the history of Sweden, by the end of the Napoleonic wars Sweden had lost Finland to the Russian empire and its role as a major regional power in the Baltic. Over the years there have been multiple submarine incidents along the Swedish coastline, most famous incident was “Whiskey on the rocks”, in 1981, on 27 October a Soviet submarine S-363 ( NATO designated Whiskey class) was spotted by local fishermen on the rocks near Blekinge archipelago. Even in the 21st century, relations between both nations had deteriorated.

WHY JOIN NATO NOW AND NOT EARLIER?

Yes, the Russia-Ukraine war is being portrayed as the reason and it is an acceptable reason, seeing what happened in Ukraine and the aggressive stance taken by Putin had raised security concerns for all the nations bordering Russia. But assuming that it’s the only reason why Finland and Sweden want NATO membership is naive.

To understand this first you need to know how NATO is defined, if you visit its website you will find NATO is defined as “A political and a military alliance”, a military alliance is a simple enough concept but a political alliance that makes all the difference. To form a political alliance a similar ideology is required which is not restricted by boundaries so 2 different people on 2 different continents can have the same thinking, coming back to the topic, now when you look at Finland, Sweden or even Ukraine and other NATO members all Left-leaning parties in control. Finland’s Social democratic party, Center party, Green league, Left alliance or Sweden’s Swedish social democratic, Left Party and Greens party all are left-leaning (even Ukraine’s Servant of the people). This political similitude along with the war created a perfect opportunity for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

WHY IS TURKIYE AGAINST FINLAND & SWEDEN JOINING NATO?

Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signals to block Finland and Sweden’s application to NATO, claiming both the nations to be home to a terrorist organization. Even though Turkiye is a member of NATO, it has still managed to keep its relationship with Russia healthy, you can call Turkiye the black sheep of NATO seeing that it had recently purchased the S-400 missile defence system and have close cooperation with Russia when comes to countering People’s Defense Unit (YPG) which is part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF comprises Kurdish militants and is considered as a proxy force of the West) & Turkiye-Kurdish conflict started in 1978 and continues till date. This is the reason why Turkiye is against Finland and Sweden joining NATO but can Turkiye do so? The answer is yes, according to article 10 all the present member nations had to agree only after that a nation can join NATO and Turkiye is only following the precedent set up by Germany in 2008 when it denied the membership of NATO to Ukraine.

RUSSIA's MOVE

Putin had made his stance very clear, any instance or step was taken by Finland and Sweden toward joining NATO will be met with serious repercussions and military incursions. At present Russia is very much similar to a wounded animal, any step taken to corner Russia, even more, will only result in retaliation. For countries like Finland and Sweden, Ukraine is a prime example of poor foreign policy and what not to be done, both the nations had remained neutral since WW2 which resulted in economic growth and development therefore must be continued.

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES?

Firstly, both Finland and Sweden will drop the idea of joining NATO and continue with their non-aligned policy, this will definitely be in their best interest.

Secondly, they ignore Russia’s warning and keep insisting on joining NATO, in which case Russia currently involved in Ukraine will choose alternative options like Air bombing and nuclear build-up in the Baltic region to attack Finland and Sweden before they get membership of NATO, very similar to what happened in Ukraine and after winding up its business in Ukraine Russia will advance west and deal lethal blows to Finland and Sweden.

Author’s comment

The way the West is influencing nations that are bordering Russia is a matter of concern, just because of NATO’s expansion, Ukraine is in shambles and seeing how events are progressing Finland will definitely lose its position as the world’s happiest country and may even witness horrors of war creating turmoil in the geopolitics around the Baltic.