Russia Ukraine war explained

Russia-Ukraine War

The global economy just started to recover from the Pandemic and the destruction it brought along. Yet we all bear witness to a pointless war, I consider it pointless because it was just a minor matter which was easily solvable with talks and yet it escalated to a point of war.

First and foremost we will be understanding the relations and history between Russia and Ukraine, then the importance of Ukraine, Why Russia waged a war, What Putin wanted from Ukraine before the war, how Ukraine is left alone, and other nation’s reactions to Putin’s bold action and shift in geopolitics, a war’s impact in the 21st century, and the possible outcome.

You can see there's a lot to explain seeing the Russia-Ukraine war as the centre of attraction for the year 2022. Let’s begin!

History and Relation

Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire up till 1918 and got Independence in 1918 but was immediately invaded by the Red Army under Lenin’s command in 1921, at the time the Russian revolution was taking place which had started in 1917 continued till 1922 and came to a conclusion with the formation of the USSR.

From 1921 to 1991, i.e. till the end of the cold war which resulted in the disbandment of the USSR, and Russia’s formation. Ukraine was part of the USSR and decided to separate itself and on 24th August 1991, Ukraine got its independence.

Separation from USSR was not a smooth transition it left seeds of discontent in the hearts of people living on the far East side of Ukraine, since these people were so close to Russia geographically and were a part of the USSR until 1991, also their culture, heritage and language were similar to that of Russians, the group swayed towards Russia and Pro-Russia Donbas was formed.

Ukraine’s Importance

Geographically Ukraine has multiple ports along the Black Sea which are crucial to trade in the region. Then there are major pipelines that go through Russia-Ukraine-Europe. And lastly, Russia sees Ukraine as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO allied countries which share a border with Ukraine i.e. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

Why Did Russia Wage War?

Russia had always shown discontentment toward Ukraine’s will of joining western powers and had warned Ukraine again and again. We must understand war is not waged because of some minor incident nor is waged on the spur of the moment. 

It isn't the first time Russia had to resort to military action, in 2014 when Ukraine expressed its desire to join the European Union (EU), Russia invaded and annexed Crimea giving a clear warning to Ukraine to not associate with Western powers.

Russia clearly has only one objective i.e. to keep its motherland safe. Putin very well understands the meaning of Ukraine joining NATO & EU, i.e. NATO’s military outpost in Ukraine, which pose a severe threat to Moscow, geographically speaking any military base in the East-Ukraine (in the region of Donetsk and Luhansk) will prove fatal to Moscow, a hypersonic missile can cover the distance in mere 5 min.

Assuming that Ukraine joined NATO and set up military outposts in the region, NATO member nations would have huge leverage against Russia. Putin and his council recognized the threat beforehand and had acted accordingly in time.

What Did Putin Want From Ukraine Before The War?

Putin only wanted Ukraine to remain neutral, neither did he want to exploit Ukraine nor did he want NATO to do so. He very much appreciated Ukraine acting as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO allied nations. Putin has more years of being a head of the state under his belt and understands the importance of a buffer zone between two opposite forces.

Ukraine Left Alone Against Russia?

This is the most important part which needs to be explained carefully. Many believe that Ukraine has NATO, EU and US in its corner, which even seems to be true from the surface of it and surely western media outlets have done to the best of their ability to portray it as such. But believe me, this is the farthest you can get from the truth, yes the US had put sanctions on Russia and also had been providing weapons like 155mm Howitzer, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Anti-tank missiles, Mi 17 Helicopters, Armored personnel carriers, Unmanned aerial systems, Switchblade drones are also known as “Kamikaze Drones” or “Loitering Munition” and small arms and ammunition but only to boost its own weapons industry, if the US was actually concerned about the well being of Ukraine and its Citizens, it would have sent its troops but no such steps were taken or will be taken in the future and why is that? Because of its recent policy change, if the US were to send its troops to another war-torn country just after pulling them out of Afghanistan, this will surely make US citizens question their leaders.

Why has Ukraine not been a member of NATO till now? It has been months since the war began, Ukraine had already proven its loyalty by going to war against Russia and in doing so completely destroying its economy and infrastructure. So why is there a delay? What's taking so long? The answer to it is NATO never actually intended to let Ukraine join its rank or should I say the US, Ukraine's role in the entire conflict is a springboard that was used by the US to put a substantial dent in Russia's economy without losing a single US soldier. The US was very well aware of the fact that Russia had made a stronghold in east Ukraine and letting Ukraine join NATO would mean sending US soldiers to Ukraine which meant a direct conflict with Russia. Both the US and Russia being nuclear states simply cannot go to war, because the consequences of such conflict can very well end with nuclear strikes, thus the US persuaded Ukraine and took full advantage.

Where is the EU? Other than putting sanctions on Russia what else did it do? Why not make Ukraine a member of the European Union? Simply put, the EU is a trader down to its bones, it is capitalist and always analyzes every situation from a perspective of profit-making and there is no profit for the EU in letting Ukraine join. Why so, you ask? Because giving Ukraine membership means letting Ukraine nationals in. Being a part of the EU means having an open border, thus, citizens of one member country can freely travel to other member countries and back.  The first thing that will happen if Ukraine becomes an EU member is that Ukraine's citizens will move to other EU nations seeing their homes and lives are already uprooted due to a senseless war. Now taking in a huge number of refugees is tolling on a country’s reserves and not to mention the uneasiness it will create in the mind of citizens of the home country. Thus, the EU had refrained from doing anything other than putting sanctions and providing humanitarian aid.

Now tell, was it not the western powers that had assured support to Ukraine before the war had begun, now they are nowhere to be seen. If nothing this war had at least outed the western hypocrisy of being a friend. The only reason why the US is supporting Ukraine is to prolong the war for as long as possible by approving billions of dollar bills (recent-$40 Billion) in the name of humanitarian assistance, global security and democracy because where there is conflict there is profit for USA's defence industry. USA’s Military Industrial Congressional Complex (MICC refers to the relationship between Government, Military, and Businesses that make products for the military) had made trillions of dollars in profit ever since the conflict began.

Other Nation’s Reaction To Putin’s Action & Shift in Geopolitics

It's safe to say that every other nation had underestimated Russia and miscalculated Putin. West and west allied nations had put countless sanctions on Russia freezing its funds and accounts in multiple nations as a result Russia is unable to pay or receive money in the international market.

Then there is China looking to make a profit out of chaos. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March, bilateral trade between Russia and China rose over 12% from a year earlier. Even though China chose to remain neutral and condemned both Russia's attack and western sanctions at the same time and seek out opportunities to gain from the conflict indirectly.

Lastly, the country which played it smart and chose to remain neutral even after being pressured by Europe and US simultaneously was India. A mature and well-thought-out decision to stay out of conflict had put India at the centre of geopolitics. India’s foreign policy was very much commended by Russia as well as the nations that are not under any influence. This clearly shows India’s supremacy when it comes to situational awareness, analyzing capacity and decision-making capabilities. India truly showed its capacity to lead the global economy and create a new world order.

A War’s Impact in the 21st Century

1. Crude oil: Russia produces 13% of global crude oil and around 40% of Europe is dependent on Russia for its oil and gas supply. Due to sanctions put on Russia, there has been a significant decrease in oil in the global market, and with a decrease in supply price rises.

2. Gold Price: Due to uncertainty in the stock market most investors tend to play it safe, i.e. they put their money behind a precious yellow substance called Gold, and with an increase in demand the price also increases.

3. Cost of living: With an increase in the price of crude oil, transportation cost, extraction cost of minerals, and import cost all previously mentioned rise as petroleum products are essential to these sectors. With an increase in the cost of these sectors, the price of raw materials also rises which increases the cost of industrial products as well as final products that are consumed by the public and with an increase in the prices of goods, consumers also demand a salary increase, thus increasing cost of services provided by them in the service sector. 

As a result, the inflation rate is high in developing nations like India, Brazil and even in developed nations like the US, France, and Britain. So even if war is not close to a nation’s territory it can still adversely affect the economy. 

In recent developments, Putin offered to let go of a few ports of Ukraine so that Ukraine nationals can start the export of wheat to the global market, and in return demanded a waiver of sanctions (a few not all). This request was declined by the Biden administration blatantly, this will not only cost Ukraine and Russia but also the entire global economy, seeing a rise in the prices of agricultural products and the upward trend of inflation rate since the war started, the export of wheat from Ukraine would not only have slowed down the inflation but also cured the shortage of wheat all around the globe. If only the Biden administration would have kept its self-serving agenda aside and utilized this opportunity to start peace talks with Russia and showed the world that the US have the world's interest in mind, the entire conflict would have been a step closer to an end.

Possible Outcome?

What's most likely to happen is Russia taking over Kyiv and conducting referendums in the region of Donbas to be particular Donetsk and Luhansk to determine what's the people opinion, similar to what Russia did in Crimea in 2014 since the entire region is pro-Russia, Putin will have no problem justifying his intentions. At the same time the US, NATO & EU will deny the credibility of the referendum, whereas other nations that want the war to end will accept the referendum and a few nations will remain neutral and the entire incident will be concluded.

Author's Comment

As I said at the beginning this is a pointless war, why so? Because the matter was so trivial that it could have been sorted out on the table with nothing but words. But due to Ukraine’s fault, my bad, I meant Zelensky’s fault Ukraine is being destroyed. Now many will claim “that guy is fighting for his country”, yes indeed he is fighting and putting up a great fight but with what objective, to benefit whose interest cause surely you can see it’s not in the interest of Ukraine nationals so then whose? Being patriotic is commendable no doubt, but to the point that the nation itself ends up in ruins, then it is just foolish. Zelensky had been played by the west to a point of no return, only because he ended up mixing his personal interest with the west’s interest. Surely there is enough blame to throw around, but only a true leader will accept responsibility for his mistake and yet it's all fallen on deaf ears.